Chapter 9 Flashcards — Structuring the Analysis of the Problem
flashcards tpp problem-solving diagnostic-frameworks logic-trees mece issue-analysis
What is the standard sequence of problem analysis, and what is wrong with the data-first approach?
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The standard sequence is: Gather Data → State Findings → Draw Conclusions → Recommend Actions. The data-first problem: a major consulting firm estimated 60% of fact-finding and analysis effort was wasted, because analysts gathered whatever was available rather than focusing on what was needed to test specific hypotheses.
What is the better alternative to gathering data first?
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Replicate the scientific method: (1) generate alternative hypotheses about why the problem exists; (2) devise crucial experiments with alternative outcomes, each of which will nearly exclude one or more hypotheses; (3) carry out the experiment to get a clean result; (4) plan remedial action accordingly. This requires building diagnostic frameworks and logic trees before gathering data.
What is a diagnostic framework, and what is it used for?
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A visual model of the structure of the area within which the client’s problem occurred. It reveals the elements or activities on which analysis should focus, enabling the analyst to generate hypotheses and formulate yes/no questions to prove or disprove those hypotheses. The appropriate diagnostic framework is generally implied by the Opening Scene of the Problem Definition Framework.
What are the three ways to build a diagnostic framework?
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- Show the physical structure — draw the system as it is or should be functioning (org chart, process flow, industry chain)
- Trace cause and effect — show the elements or tasks that combine to produce the end result (financial structure, task structure, activity structure)
- Classify possible causes — group likely causes by similarity or use a dual-choice diagram to bifurcate possibilities at each decision point
What are the three variants of the Cause-and-Effect diagnostic approach, and when is each used?
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- Financial Structure (Exhibit 39): Decomposes ROI into its drivers to identify whether the problem is in Sales or Costs. Used when you need to explain low financial performance.
- Task Structure (Exhibit 40): Begins with EPS and states each financial element as a discrete managerial task (“Increase Net Sales,” “Reduce Leaf”). Advantage: identifies what kind of action is required if the problem is found at each node.
- Activity Structure (Exhibit 41): Traces activities that produce an undesirable end objective (e.g., installations taking longer than expected). Start with the undesirable effect, hypothesize MECE causes at the next level, break each down further.
What is the dual-choice (choice structure) diagnostic diagram, and how is it built?
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A bifurcating tree that displays sequential yes/no choices until reaching actionable causes. The trick: visualize the sequential process in the area being analyzed and reflect it in bifurcations. Example (Exhibit 43): Ineffective sales support → Ineffective at retail OR at headquarters. If at retail → Right stores or Wrong stores. If right stores → Right frequency or Wrong frequency. Continue until reaching root causes (priorities not clear, salesman overloaded, wrong compensation, inadequate supervision).
What does a completed diagnostic framework allow you to show the client?
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Three views of the structure/system:
- What it looks like today as it delivers R1 (what’s going on now)
- What it logically would have had to look like to deliver the R1 they now get (what you must have been doing)
- What it ideally should look like to deliver the desired R2 (what you need to do to achieve your objective)
This allows you to demonstrate the need for change by comparing actual to ideal.
How do diagnostic frameworks differ from decision trees and PERT diagrams?
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Decision trees and PERT diagrams reveal the need for action — they show what to do and in what sequence (decision points, chance events, activity sequences). Diagnostic frameworks, by contrast, identify the causes of a problem. Decision trees and PERT diagrams should not be confused with diagnostic frameworks; they answer different questions.
What is a logic tree, and how does it differ from a diagnostic framework?
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A logic tree lays out the logically possible actions that could be taken to solve a problem (steps 4–5 of Sequential Analysis). It is solution-generative, not cause-diagnostic. A diagnostic framework models “what’s wrong and why” (steps 2–3); a logic tree models “what could/should be done about it” (steps 4–5). Both must be MECE.
How can logic trees be used to reveal flaws in grouped ideas already written?
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By diagramming the “issues” or grouped points from a written document against the structure of the problem, you can see which items actually relate to the problem and which do not. In Exhibit 50 (energy costs), issues 7, 8, and 9 from a 10-issue list don’t relate to energy costs at all. The principle: all groupings of ideas must have originated in an analytical activity; matching ideas to the structure verifies logical validity.
What is Minto’s strict definition of an “issue,” and why does the distinction matter?
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An issue is a question phrased so as to demand a yes-or-no answer (from the legal phrase “at issue” — two sides, one of which will prevail). “How should we reorganize?” is NOT an issue (presupposes the decision). “Should we reorganize functionally?” IS an issue. The distinction matters because yes/no issues enable clear-cut answers and serve as “crucial experiments” — their answers unambiguously include or exclude causes and tell you in advance when your research is finished.
What was Issue Analysis originally, and how has it been misused?
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Issue Analysis was coined by David Hertz and Carter Bales at McKinsey in the 1960s for New York City (Mayor Lindsay) — a rigorous technique for decisions with urgency, multiple meritorious alternatives, many variables, conflicting criteria, and significant downstream impact. It has since been misused to mean almost any logic tree or grouped-issues list. Minto argues this misuse has caused confusion about how to use either diagnostic frameworks or logic trees correctly.
What are the administrative benefits of pre-structuring the analysis before gathering data?
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Before beginning data collection, the analyst can: identify the source of each piece of data, assign responsibility for collecting it, work out the schedule for gathering it, and estimate costs. The entire effort then proceeds efficiently and purposefully, rather than generating a large pile of facts to be organized later.
What is Abduction, and what role does it play in structured analysis?
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Abduction (discussed in Appendix A) is the process of generating the likely possible reasons to explain why a problem exists, by looking critically at the structure of the area within which the problem occurred. It is distinct from deduction (deriving consequences from premises) and induction (generalizing from examples). Abduction is how analysts come up with the initial hypotheses that diagnostic frameworks are designed to test.
Why does Minto say there is never a real need for a section called “Issues” in a consulting proposal?
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Because the issues, the process, and the end products of the study all turn out to be the same thing. The issues derive from the analytical process — which is the diagnostic framework — and the document structure should reflect that analytical process directly. A section called “Issues” is typically either a confused restatement of the diagnostic framework or a logic tree, presented without clarity about which it is.